IMPROVE PRACTICE AND USE OF FUTURES ANALYSIS
Policy action 1: Increase and improve futures analysis through central unit or agency that leads regular foresight and horizon-scanning activities
Simple option: Create a futures analysis centre in a central government agency that provides support, training and frameworks to other departmental foresight units, leads whole-of-government foresight activities for major policy questions and initiatives, determines the work program in line with the wider agenda, and maintains a database of horizon-scanning products to prevent duplication of effort and to encourage knowledge sharing (Source: based on existing futures, horizon-scanning and foresighting activity – see Case Study)
Advanced option: Create a futures analysis agency reporting to the head of government, which, in addition to the activities of the central futures analysis centre, conducts all-source assessment and policy analysis for global catastrophic risks, and coordinates with stakeholders inside and outside government (Source: based on existing futures, horizon-scanning and foresighting activity – see Case Study)
Case study – Futures analysis around the world
Singapore’s Centre for Strategic Futures, based in the Prime Minister’s Office, is a world leader in horizon scanning for government. It focuses on issues that may be blind-spot areas, pursues open-ended long-term futures research, and experiments with new foresight methodologies.
In the UK, the Horizon Scanning Programme team in the Cabinet Office provides a central coordination function for the UK’s horizon-scanning efforts, while the Government Office for Science’s Futures team supports portfolio-level horizon scanning, conducts futures analysis on cross-cutting and long-term issues, and delivers training and development for civil servants.
This capability provides governments with a way to develop and interpret a range of possible futures. Used in conjunction with risk assessment efforts, these capabilities can help identify new risks, explore future scenarios and reduce uncertainty. Researchers of existential and global catastrophic risk have commonly used and recommended these techniques, such as horizon-scanning, scenario-building, forecasting competitions and red-teaming. For example, researchers from the Future of Humanity Institute recommend ‘regular horizon scanning’, to identify unknown risks, and also to set up organisations in such a way that they regularly and promptly receive this information.
Policy action 2: Inject futures analysis into government policy-making processes
Simple option: Develop a future analysis toolkit for policy officers and train them on the techniques and create small team to broker between foresight producers and policymakers (Source: based on the UK’s Futures Toolkit)
Advanced option: Incorporate a mandatory futures analysis process during major policy decisions, supported by a senior horizon-scanning oversight group, which commissions new work, ensures relevant judgements and implications are drawn from horizon-scanning activity, and reports highest priority implications to decision-makers (Source: original to this report)
Further reading – lessons from government futures activities
The widest review of foresight and horizon-scanning practice in government was conducted by the European Union Institute for Security Studies in its 2013 yearbook.
The European Commission’s internal expert group, the Research, Innovation and Science Experts, published a report in 2015 on the lessons for policy-making from foresight in countries outside Europe, with a focus on countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Leon Fuerth’s 2012 report, Anticipatory Governance: Practical Upgrades, provides a detailed analysis of foresight-policy integration and recommends four broad policy actions: organising a foresight system, brokering between foresight and policy, incentivising foresight, and training professionals for foresight.
In January 2013, the UK Cabinet Office published a review of cross-government horizon scanning, led by the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee Jon Day.
Switzerland-based think tank, the Center for Security Studies, released a report in 2009 on horizon scanning to inform the Swiss government.
The Institute of Risk Management provides a practical guide for risk managers to conduct horizon scanning.
Linking strategic-level insights with policy-making is probably a major challenge for most governments that conduct futures analysis. In the US, according to one 2018 report, many agencies did not have formal processes for integrating the results of futures analysis into policy planning or management processes. A few agencies — such as the Veterans Affairs, US Coast Guard, US Air Force, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the Environmental Protection Agency — were able to incorporate foresight work into the organisation’s strategic planning process. But foresight in other agencies remained fragile, immature and limited in its influence.